A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
